Model risk in real option valuation

Risk-adjusted Valuation of the Real Option to Invest

This paper resolves the conceptual ambiguity of real option value and derives a model using risk-adjusted discount rates that can be applied to value the option to invest in a project. The approach adopts stochastic revenue and costs which provide a general solution with the added virtue of applicability. We found the option value arises from the difference between an individual investor and th...

A fuzzy approach to real option valuation

To have a real option means to have the possibility for a certain period to either choose for or against making an invetsment decision, without binding oneself up front. The real option rule is that one should invest today only if the net present value is high enough to compensate for giving up the value of the option to wait. Because the option to invest loses its value when the investment is ...

Option valuation with liquidity risk and jumps

5 ABSTRACT This article provides a simple model for pricing and hedging options in the presence of jumps and liquidity costs. In the article, liquidity risk is modelled via a stochastic supply curve function and a jump-diffusion process is approximated by a Markov chain. Local risk minimization incorporating liquidity risk is proposed to price and hedge European options in this discrete10 time ...

Option Valuation and the Price of Risk

A valuation model is presented for options on stocks for which BlackScholes arbitrage does not entirely eliminate risk. The price dynamics of a portfolio of options and the underlying security is quanti ed by requiring that the excess reward-to-risk ratio of the portfolio be identical to that of the underlying stock: excess return risk portfolio = excess return risk stock : The nonlinear evolut...

The Planting Real Option in Cash Rent Valuation